Ranting and Raving

No way out November 11, 2006

Now that the election is over, our thoughts turn to the new Democratic majorities in congress, and what they can do about the ongoing fiasco in Iraq.

I can see four ways forward from here, and none of them are very pretty:

1. Reinstating the draft, and sending enough troops in to pacify the country.

This seems like it would be political suicide for either party to suggest. It might be a way to stop the hemmoraging, though. This would probably lead to a long term commitment of troops, at enormous expense. I wouldn’t be surprised if something like this is the recommendation of the Iraq Study Commission.
2. Overthrow the elected government, and find a strongman who will impose order

I feel like I’m having cold-war flashbacks. This might “work”, for some value of work, lowering our popularity in all of Europe, the Arab world, and the Muslim world. And put the lie to the whole bit about bringing freedom and democracy to the heart of the middle east.

3. Start bringing the boys home, and leave the Iraqis to their own fate

The chaos that would follow would be ugly, but this might be our best option. I’m betting we are going to lose this war eventually anyway, and an immediate pullout would limit the losses.

4. Continue to muddle along the way we are.

I suspect that this is the most likely scenario. Politicians don’t like to make hard choices, and any of the other scenarios are going to be just too hard. I think the outcome is still going to be the same, though. Many thousands more in American casualties, Iraqi casualties running into the millions, and a slow wearing down of the American will to fight. The eventual pullout will be a replay of leaving Saigon in 1975. And Iraq will have to find its own way forward.